It’s the same song and dance as another country wants to break away from its parents to be independent with no clue what comes next if they do.
Have we not learned anything from the stupidity of countries like Greece joining the European Union? Greece thought joining the Eurozone would lead to prosperity as it would be seen as a respectable member of the European community. They fought hard to prove they belonged and finally gained admittance into the Union. What followed was the realization that abandoning the dhracma made their exports of olives uncompetitive, their beaches too expensive, and the cost of a gyro costing too many Euros. Now countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Italy, and Portugal are wondering what they really gained by becoming members.
First comes love, then comes marriage, then comes…
bailout and austerity.
Enter Scotland who is voting this week whether to remain part of Great Britain or try to make it on their own. This is the opposite situation of those countries mentioned above but will, in my opinion, have similar negative consequences.
First, banks like the Royal Bank of Scotland whose headquarters are in Scotland are already making contingency plans to leave Scotland if the referendum passes. Second, the producers of Scotch whiskey are feeling anxious that the intellectual property rights of this native drink will not be enforced due to a limited number of Scottish embassies in contrast to UK embassies worldwide. Next, there are serious questions as to what will happen if Scotland institutes its own currency that is not pegged to the British pound. All of this spells disaster for a country who appropriately wants its sovereignty recognized but has not done the calculus as to what happens if it is completely autonomous.
Investors will be appropriately weary of a country who rather abruptly decide to break free from one the most stable currencies in Europe, the British sterling, in favor of an unseasoned monetary authority. Access to affordable capital will be hard to come by spelling disaster should things not go well for this fledgling economy. And if things do go awry, who will Scotland turn to for help, the United Kingdom? One could only imagine the terms of that bailout.
If not, would they also considering joining the sinking ship of the EU? Hopefully not. We’ve all seen that movie before and it doesn’t have a happy ending.
So to all my 16 year old Scots who have inexplicably been given a vote to decide the fate of their country, I urge you to consider that you have not considered all that needs to be considered in making this historic choice.
That alone should convince you to vote no.
Cheers,
An avid whiskey drinker
